Badgers take top-ranking into East Lansing

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/20/2007 - East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The now top-ranked Wisconsin Badgers have made the trip to East Lansing for tonight's Big Ten Conference clash with the Michigan State Spartans.

Five consecutive wins have enabled Wisconsin to move to 26-2 overall and 12-1 in conference, and the Badgers remain tied with the Ohio State Buckeyes atop the Big Ten standings. The most recent of the five victories occurred on Saturday for Wisconsin, as it cruised to a 75-49 decision over Penn State. The Badgers' 26 wins are the most in the nation and the most in one season in program history. The team has reached the top of the national poll for the first-time ever.

Michigan State hasn't been quite as successful as its counterpart today, as the Spartans have split their 12 Big Ten games. They are on a bit of a roll, however, as they have won two straight by double figures, including an 81-49 thrashing of Iowa on Saturday. Michigan State is now 16-1 at home, an obvious reason for confidence tonight.

The Spartans hold a 65-54 series advantage over the Badgers, and Michigan State has won two of the last three meetings.

If anyone is going to steal National Player of the Year honors away from Texas freshman Kevin Durant, it figures to be Wisconsin standout Alando Tucker. The outstanding forward has scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive outings, including a 22-point effort against Penn State on Saturday. Kammron Taylor pitched in 18 points for the Badgers, who got 11 points from Jason Bohannon off the bench. Wisconsin connected on 51.9 percent of its field goal attempts in that clash, including a stellar 12-of-23 showing from behind the arc. Tucker is averaging 20.4 ppg this season, and he can get his own shot at any time. Taylor checks in with 13.1 ppg on 42.1 percent shooting from three-point range for the Badgers, who are limiting opponents to 57.8 ppg on 40.3 percent shooting from the field.

Drew Neitzel is the leading scorer for Michigan State, as he is netting 18.1 ppg on 40.4 percent shooting from three-point range and 90.4 percent accuracy from the foul line. Also, Neitzel has dished out 118 assists against only 59 turnovers. Raymar Morgan is the only other double-digit scorer in the lineup, as he is posting 11.1 ppg. Strong defense is clearly the key to success for the Spartans, as they are holding foes to 56.0 ppg on 37.9 percent shooting from the field. Neitzel scored 17 points in the blowout victory over Iowa last time out. Morgan pitched in 16 points for Michigan State, which connected on 57.9 percent of its field goal attempts and limited Iowa to 34.1 percent efficiency from the floor.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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