August turns ugly for Nationals

Baseball Betting Lines

08/20/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sooner or later the Washington Nationals would fall from grace after their hot start this month.

As Homer said to Bart during an old April Fool's episode of The Simpsons, "You couldn't fool your mother on the foolingest day of your life if you had an electrified fooling machine."

The same can be said for the Nationals in August after they opened the month with five straight wins. Then manager Manny Acta's ballclub began playing much like the NL East doormats they have always been, losing nine of the following 13 games, including a current four-game slide.

Most sports fans with a pulse could have predicted that the Nationals had no chance of making the playoffs back in April, and those bets will still stand strong when October rolls around. I also don't claim to be a genius with that assessment, but it gets pretty old watching this franchise falter in the summer heat year after year.

Washington just completed a six-game homestand against division rivals Philadelphia and New York, ending with a 1-5 record. It scored no more than four runs in each of those contests and fell to 31-34 at RFK Stadium this season.

Maybe a season-long 10-game road trip is what Acta's club needs to get back in the win column. The Nationals own an 8-10 road record since the beginning of July and will pay visits to Houston (four games), Colorado (three games) and Los Angeles (three games) with hopes of improving a 24-35 road mark.

NATS ADD PENA TO ROSTER

Nats general manager Jim Bowden liked what he saw from Wily Mo Pena while with the Cincinnati Reds and dealt for the outfielder last week. Pena and cash considerations were sent to Washington from Beantown for a player to be named.

Pena, who hit .218 with five home runs and 17 RBI in 73 games with Boston this year, made his Washington debut on Saturday at RFK Stadium against the New York Mets. Pena started in left field and went 1-for-4 with two runs scored in a 7-4 setback to the division-leading Mets. He then homered in Sunday's loss.

"He brings legitimate power," teammate Dmitri Young said of Pena. "He will complement our guys who will hit the gaps. It's just a matter of getting some playing time. "Nothing against [Ryan] Church, because Church has been doing the job all year, but ultimately Pena will make every player better."

JOHNSON WILL NOT PLAY IN '07

Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson will not play this season in order to recover from a broken right femur suffered in a collision with teammate Austin Kearns against the New York Mets on September 23 last season.

Johnson has been rehabilitating ever since and his return date was pushed back several times. Johnson also received two cortisone shots to kill the pain and, according to GM Jim Bowden, his hip has been giving him the most problems.

The slugger, who batted .290 with 23 homers and 77 RBI in 2006, was sent to the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, MN this week and doctors discovered bursitis in the hip. It was then suggested Johnson undergo surgery to remove the rod and screw that had been inserted in the broken femur.

Johnson is expected to have the procedure done on Saturday in Washington. Doctors believe he will be ready for Spring Training next year.

WHO'S HOT

Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who owns 13 extra-base hits this month, batted .348 with five doubles and two RBI during the recent six-game homestand.

Zimmerman is hitting.333 with 16 RBI in 19 games since July 31. He owns a .310 batting average and 45 hits after the All-Star break.

WHO'S NOT

Washington catcher Brian Schneider has just a .222 batting average (4-for-20) over his last eight games.

Infielder Felipe Lopez has one hit in his past 18 at-bats after recording 21 hits over the previous 68 plate appearances.

ON DECK

The Nationals open a season-long 10-game road trip on Monday night with the first of four games against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.

They will then visit the Colorado Rockies for three games at Coors Field before opening a three-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.

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MySportsbook.com : Fortune Favors Favorites in March Madness betting?

Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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